Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) shares dropped -7.88% to $1.87 in the previous close by the company, which provides mortgage financing in the United States. In other words, Fannie Mae MBS(FNMA)securitizes mortgage loans originated by lenders. The company operates in two segments: single-family and multifamily.
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The U.S. economy is currently projected to shrink by 2.7 percent in 2020. Still, growth is expected to pick up dramatically in the coming months, according to the latest commentary from Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group (ESR). Despite an expectation of a modest increase in real GDP growth of 0.8 percentage points from the previous quarter, the ESR Group argues that the expansion of COVID-19 vaccination efforts followed by the onset of warmer weather will likely hinder economic recovery mid-2021. Furthermore, ESR Group officials noted that the continued recovery would probably be more rapid than that which followed the Great Recession. The firm upgraded its growth forecast for 2022 by 0.4 percentage points to 3.6 percent. Vaccination distribution and the path of the pandemic are the immediate risks to the forecast. Delays could adversely impact the timeline for projected growth to that process. However, the ESR Group believes the conditions are favorable for a strong recovery, with inflationary pressure and higher interest rates the significant long-term risks.
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It is expected that housing activity will continue to be strong in 2021, but slower than the sector’s explosive growth witnessed by the end of 2020. Despite a rise in home sales estimated by ESR Group at 3.8 percent in 2021, the pace will likely slow for much of the year. Prices of homes will also slow along the same timeline. The mortgage industry is expected to reach its all-time high of $2.8 trillion in 2020 in the refinance mortgage space, while originations for purchase loans are expected to jump to $1.8 trillion by 2021, up from the expected $1.6 trillion in 2020. According to the ESR Group, 67 percent of outstanding mortgages have at least a half-percentage-point incentive to refinance.